Circulating interleukin-10 and risk of cardiovascular events: a prospective study in the elderly at risk.

OBJECTIVE The goal of this study was to examine the association of the antiinflammatory interleukin-10 (IL-10) with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS In the PROSPER (PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk) cohort, we related baseline concentrations of circulating IL-10 to risk of CVD events in a nested case (n=819)-control (n=1618) study of 3.2 years of follow-up. Circulating IL-10 showed few strong associations with classical risk factors but was positively correlated with IL-6 and C-reactive protein. IL-10 was positively associated with risk of CVD events (odds ratio [OR] 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31 per unit increase in log IL-10) after adjusting for classical risk factors and C-reactive protein. Furthermore, IL-10 was associated more strongly with CVD risk among those with no previous history of CVD (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.70), compared with those with previous CVD (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.19; P=0.018). Overall, IL-10 showed a modest ability to add discrimination to classical risk factors (C-statistic +0.005, P=0.002). CONCLUSIONS Baseline circulating levels of the antiinflammatory IL-10 are positively associated with risk of CVD among the elderly without prior CVD events, although the association is less evident in those with a history of CVD. Additional epidemiological and mechanistic studies investigating the role of IL-10 in CVD are warranted.